稳定橡胶价格可以通过多种方式实现


时间:

2018-08-08

近两年来,由于天然橡胶价格持续低迷,国内天然橡胶生产十分困难,有人分析原因,多提到复合橡胶进口和天然橡胶进口关税,希望国家宏观调控橡胶价格。事实上,近年来,天然橡胶的价格波动,无论是上下游都产生了严重的危害,因此行业更迫切的要求是稳定橡胶价格,实现健康可持续发展。而稳定橡胶价格,政府和行业可以在很多方面有所作为。影响价格和库存的因素业内人士认为,天然橡胶价格低,库存高,复合橡胶进口,主要有以下原因:

In the past two years, due to the continuous downturn in natural rubber prices, domestic natural rubber production is very difficult, some people analyze the reasons for this, mentioning that more composite rubber imports and natural rubber import tariffs, hoping that the state macro-control of rubber prices. In fact, in recent years, the price of natural rubber fluctuations, both upstream and downstream have produced serious harm, so the industry more urgent requirement is to stabilize the price of rubber, to achieve healthy and sustainable development. And stabilize the rubber price, the government and the industry can make a difference in many ways.                                                  
    Factors affecting the price and inventory                       
   Industry insiders believe that the low price of natural rubber, high inventory, compound rubber imports, mainly for the following reasons:
    First, the global supply and demand for natural rubber due to changes. 2013, the global natural rubber production in about 12 million tons, the demand for 11.3 million - 11.5 million tons between the supply surplus of hundreds of thousands of tons, thus causing the market supply exceeds demand.                                                               
    Secondly, China's synthetic rubber production capacity has expanded, and natural rubber has formed a mutual substitution relationship. In recent years, as China's demand for natural rubber increased year by year, import dependence reached about 80%, in 2012 before the price year by year, and even once more than 40,000 yuan / ton, thus stimulating the rapid development of the synthetic rubber industry, China's synthetic rubber production from 2008 2 million tons to 2013 4.98 million tons of rapid increase. And natural rubber and synthetic rubber have about 20% can be replaced by each other, and its price relationship is also quite sensitive, both the factors that increase the amount of natural rubber, but also inhibit the amount of natural rubber is a major reason.                                                 
    Third, the futures market price guidance. As we all know, now the global natural rubber to see China, China's natural rubber to see Shanghai, Shanghai Futures Exchange natural rubber daily turnover is all the other exchanges in the world dozens of times the volume. And the main driver of futures prices is financial capital. Natural rubber prices in recent years the dramatic fluctuations have been decoupled from the fundamentals, spot market prices and futures trading prices have become a strong correlation between the domestic and foreign capital speculation is closely related to the domestic and foreign economic trends and financial situation is closely related. Among them, the natural rubber trading varieties and rules of the Futures Exchange is also an extremely important factor in the irrational.                                         
    Fourth, the financial attributes of rubber exceed its agricultural attributes.  In recent years, the financial capital has entered the rubber trade field, and the two years of rubber stocks have been financing arbitrage imports continue to push up. The profit point of the operation is not in the rubber buying and selling price difference, but to rubber as a carrier to obtain financing, earn domestic and foreign interest rate differential income. For example, in 2013, the domestic currency and financial markets were once in a "money shortage", foreign dollar financing costs at 2% to 4%, while the domestic RMB financing costs even exceeded 10%, in the context of domestic capital constraints, domestic and foreign interest rate differentials expanding, providing a positive return on the exchange rate difference of the arbitrage operation, boosting the financing of trade operations.                    
    Fifth, high tariffs lead to the import of composite rubber. If natural rubber is imported according to normal tariffs, rubber-using enterprises simply can not withstand the pressure of high tariffs. Such as 2011 when the price of natural rubber is high, China's imports of natural rubber 2.1 million tons, the import amount of 9380.895 million U.S. dollars, the average price of imports of 4467 U.S. dollars / ton, ad valorem tax tariffs as high as 5610 yuan / ton, the enterprise is unable to digest, there are large-scale losses. Even if the price of natural rubber is low in 2013, China imported 2.48 million tons of natural rubber, import amount of $639,625,000, the average price of imports of $2579 / ton, calculated on the basis of 20% ad valorem tax, the tariff also reached 3218.6 yuan / ton. It is because the normal import tariffs are too high, forcing enterprises to import zero-tariff composite rubber.
    Sixth, compound rubber import tariffs and natural rubber prices are basically irrelevant. Compound rubber zero tariffs as part of China - ASEAN trade reciprocity reciprocal conditions, has been implemented for many years. 2009 began, compound rubber tariffs from 5% down to 0, did not form an impact on the price of natural rubber in China. On December 30, 2008 on the natural rubber price of 10,670 yuan / ton, and to February 14, 2011 prices as high as 42,860 yuan / ton. The implementation of two years of zero tariffs, domestic rubber prices, on the contrary, all the way up, it can be seen that the high and low rubber prices are not determined by the compound rubber import tariffs.
    High tariffs do not meet national conditions
    As a very limited area suitable for species of strategic materials, the world's natural rubber import tariffs levied on only China and India, the United States, Japan, Europe and other developed countries in the rubber tire industry are not natural rubber tariffs. India's annual output of natural rubber 900,000 tons or so, basically self-sufficient, annual imports of natural rubber as a small amount of supplement, and thus set up import tariffs to protect the domestic natural rubber industry. Even so, India set up natural rubber import tariffs still on its own tire industry has produced great harm. India's tire industry foundation is far better than China (once a British colony, open to the outside world far earlier than China), was Asia's second only to Japan's tire production and export power, but now has been reduced to tire importers. As a result of import tariffs on rubber, India's local tire industry is constrained, China, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and other countries a large number of tires into the Indian market.
    About 80% of China's natural rubber depends on imports, domestic natural rubber is not only far from meeting the needs of production, and in the quality, variety of the gap is even greater. And in the first few years of high prices of natural rubber, southern Yunnan and other areas of a large number of deforestation of tropical rainforest crops planted rubber tree phenomenon, governments at all levels are also doing everything possible to combat local deforestation, China's natural rubber production capacity has no significant increase in the possibility of, and therefore can not be blindly refer to the high tariffs set in India.
    Natural rubber is an important strategic material, can only be planted in tropical and rainy areas, the global production capacity growth potential is very limited, while China and the global market demand is increasing. For the consideration of the limited domestic ecological protection of tropical rainforests, the country should also actively encourage imports.
    In addition, the high tariff policy of natural rubber to the development of the domestic tire industry has brought many disadvantages. First, tire companies are forced to import only a large number of zero-tariff processing trade rubber, resulting in a high degree of dependence on the international market, not only is not conducive to enterprises in the domestic market to shape the brand, but also to make the industry is always faced with international trade friction of the suppression of the tire industry is not conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the tire industry. Secondly, tire companies are difficult to change the marketing strategy in a timely manner according to changes in the market situation, making it difficult to maximize the benefits of enterprises. Such as the domestic market situation is good when the price is high, the enterprise because the import is processing trade natural rubber, only product exports a road, can not timely market transformation. Multinational tire companies are global procurement, global deployment, while few domestic tire companies out of the country. In recent years, the domestic automobile market has become the biggest bright spot in global economic growth, but domestic tire companies are difficult to share the benefits due. Third, it promotes the smuggling of natural rubber and other illegal behavior.
    Existing compound rubber standards should not be changed
    It is understood that some people have proposed reference to Hong Kong, China, Macao to enjoy zero-tariff goods origin standards, reduce the compound rubber in the natural rubber content. Industry insiders believe that this will seriously damage the domestic tires and other rubber enterprises market competitiveness. Hong Kong, Macao, China, there is no tire industry, so the composite rubber standard for them has no practical significance, does not have the value of reference.
    Compound rubber international standards can not be relied upon, the China Rubber Industry Association in order to regulate the compound rubber market, to ensure that the quality of rubber enterprises imported compound rubber, in 2006 to develop a compound rubber self-regulatory norms, the norms have been confirmed by the Ministry of Commerce and other relevant departments. At the same time, after dialogue and communication with the governments and associations of rubber-producing countries, it has also been recognized by the governments and associations of rubber-producing countries and processing enterprises. If the proportion of natural rubber in compound rubber is reduced, the quality of compound rubber cannot be guaranteed, which will not only affect the safety performance of tire products, but also seriously affect the use of domestic enterprises and the supply of foreign rubber, resulting in a great confusion in the market.
    If you significantly reduce the natural rubber content in the composite rubber, not to mention whether it is still in line with the process requirements of rubber products enterprises, in terms of refining must also be added to large-scale refining equipment, equivalent to China's tire companies 1/3 of the processing process to Southeast Asia, not only technically infeasible, but also Southeast Asia is not at all capable of, in fact, is equivalent to the closure of the door of the composite rubber imports. It is understood that last year, China's imports of composite rubber 1.54 million tons, if China closed the door on imports of composite rubber, then the global natural rubber market will be more surplus, because China's natural rubber consumption accounted for more than 1/3 of the world. By then, the price of natural rubber will also fall sharply, many years ago had fallen to below $1,000 / ton, thus again pulling down the global price of natural rubber.
    Suggestions for stabilizing natural rubber prices
   Excessively high and low natural rubber prices will seriously damage the common interests of upstream and downstream enterprises. Therefore, China Rubber Industry Association and domestic tires and other rubber products enterprises have been calling for the stabilization of natural rubber prices. In stabilizing the price, the relevant departments and industries can do something in many aspects:
    First, actively encourage the domestic natural rubber producing areas in advance of the old rubber forest for replanting. Rubber tree general life expectancy of 30 years, and later yields will decline, in the lower prices, Southeast Asian governments are encouraging rubber farmers to replant in advance. Such as the Thai government to give rubber farmers per Lai (1 Lai about 2.4 acres) 26,000 baht (about 5,200 yuan) of seeding subsidies.
    The second is to give small and medium-sized rubber farmers subsidies. Last year, the Thai government's policy is: subsidize 2,520 baht (about 500 yuan) per lei of rubber trees, each rubber farmer maximum subsidy of 20 lei, rubber farmers do not cut rubber to do other work is also given subsidies.
    Third, the state increased natural rubber storage. China has been the world's first big producer of tires and rubber consumption, import dependence has reached 80%, in this case, the state should increase the amount of natural rubber reserves, the establishment of a sound mechanism for regulating the state's natural rubber resources, so that the state reserves of rubber to play a practical role in the price of rubber when the price is too low to buy, stabilize the price and consolidate and develop the natural rubber production base; in the price of rubber when the price is too high to throw, to suppress the market price, prevent and control inflation, reduce the rubber processing enterprises, and to prevent and control inflation. Governance of inflation, reduce the cost of raw materials for rubber processing enterprises to ensure the normal operation of enterprises, give full play to the role of the state reserves and should be as.
    Fourth, the establishment of commercial storage mechanism. As long as there is a small amount of national financial and bank loan support, large domestic tire companies, rubber trading enterprises will participate in it, and the amount of storage will not be small, because rubber is easy to save, and longer shelf life.
    Fifth, the establishment of natural rubber stabilization fund. On the one hand, it can play the leverage of futures, on the other hand, it can also operate the spot. China Rubber Industry Association has been actively organizing large domestic tire companies to operate the stability of the fund, but because it is a new thing, I hope the state financial, banking and other support.
    Sixth, encourage domestic enterprises to go out. The state should give more preferential policies for enterprises investing in foreign countries, while encouraging going out, but also to let the resources "flow back", in the overseas rubber resources are sold back to the domestic market, to give free of tariffs or reduced import VAT, or the use of levy and then refund, etc., in order to ensure that domestic enterprises go out with foreign enterprises to enjoy an equal market treatment, alleviate the situation of serious shortage of natural rubber resources in China.

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